Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
