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Just two months prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or the reason for the team's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. After Rogers drilled in his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, Emery ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow a mere three points behind the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?

It remains a particularly tough question to resolve. History, the traditional standing of the club, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, while the victories have accumulated.

Per the data, in only two games has the team registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a side which has just won ten consecutive victories, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – but currently the margins are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping Rogers to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.

The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, arced just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition had more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Maybe there exists another reality whereby, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still find their top level.

• The main striker may begin to scoring again.
• The winger could transform into the force he resembled in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would be third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.

This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the match-winner faced the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.